*** Week 3 thread ***

[False Light]

as usual, let's talk the upcoming week of nfl football

i went through a rough draft of my confidence picks, and ended up almost taking all home teams

anyone got any possible road upsets this sunday?

[donkeypunch]

Yeah FL with only 1 road favorite this week, it's easy to see why so many home teams in a picks pool. As for road teams to watch out for, I'm looking at Carolina (who will get Steve Smith back, look at what Brandon Marshall did his first week back), I would like Arizona more if they didn't have to play at 1pm est ...so I only marginally like them, obviously Dallas....and call me crazy but I think the Jets have a good chance on Monday night. Also have my eye on Tampa Bay, they always make it hard on young QB's (ie, last week against Atlanta).

[Smoes]

I gotta few games ive been looking at


Giants -13 over Bengals

The Bengals are in a must win situation that they cant win...the team is just falling apart imo.

Eagles -3.5 over Steelers

Denver/Saints Under 51

I dont see these too teams putting up that many points.

[False Light]

my possible road wins and this is not against the spread...

dallas, i mean, they look great, so it's a possible road win, i am almost 100% on taking them with a 1-3 value...

browns, yeah, probably a honk pick, but we went into baltimore last year and won, the infamous dawson field goal play... in my opinion our defensive line is better and i think romeo is just smart enough to bring the heat on rookie joe flacco, i am taking the browns with a medium to high value. plus derek anderson is feeling the pressure to have a good game, the fans are ready for the brady quinn era to start

pittsburgh, obviously one of the better road teams over the past 5 years... i am not sure if i want to take them because philly looked really good monday night, do i pick against them because of the hangover of mnf? especially a high emotion game like that one was? i am really on the fence with this game, regardless it will have a 1-3 value.

carolina, i'm with you on that, carolina has grinded out some really tough victories over good teams. and i don't know if sending out gus frerotte is the right idea.

detroit, another game that i will take with low value, for as ugly as sunday looked, they did have a lead in the 4th.

kansas city and arizona are 2 other road teams that could possibly win, but i am not sure of.

other than that, i think the rest of the home teams prevail this week.

this is what i have so far.

16 ne
15 nyg
14 den
13 sd
12 cle
11 ten
10 chi
9 ind
8 atl
7 buf
6 was
5 sea
4 car
3 phi
2 det
1 dal

thoughts?

[donkeypunch]

You know the more I think about it, the more chance I give Jacksonville a chance to win this week. Without Bob Sanders, I don't think Indy will be able to control the game defensively. Interesting stat on Arizona, they were 1-3 last year in games played in the eastern time zone last year, relevant because they are playing 3 hours earlier than they are used to....however, they lose those games by 2, 3 and 7 points.

[bigwinnner8]

Here's some stuff for you guys....

Week 3

Sunday, September 21st

Kansas City at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 7-1 Under in September
Atlanta: 9-1 Under as a favorite

Oakland at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 12-4 Under off an Under
Buffalo: 8-1 ATS off SU win as an underdog

Houston at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Houston: 6-0 Over vs. division
Tennessee: 11-2 ATS vs. division

Cincinnati at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 7-0 Under as an underdog
NY Giants: 11-3 ATS off ATS win

Arizona at Washington, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 6-0 ATS in September
Washington: 8-22 ATS at home 1st month of season

Miami at New England, 1:00 ET
Miami: 0-7 ATS in September
New England: 25-10 at home off BB Unders

Tampa Bay at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 6-11 ATS in road games
Chicago: 14-4 Over in home games

Carolina at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 6-0 Under after a win by 3 or less points
Minnesota: 15-3 Under as a home favorite of 3 points or less

St. Louis at Seattle, 4:05 ET
St. Louis: 3-11 ATS as an underdog
Seattle: 12-2 ATS after scoring and allowing 30 pts

Detroit at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
Detroit: 4-13 ATS in road games
San Francisco: 10-1 Over at home off SU division win as dog

New Orleans at Denver, 4:05 ET
New Orleans: 48-23 ATS Away off ATS loss
Denver: 6-16 ATS as a favorite

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia, 4:15 ET
Pittsburgh: 0-6 ATS Away off SU win
Philadelphia: 6-0 ATS off division loss

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 4:15 ET
Jacksonville: 7-0 Over as road underdog
Indianapolis: 5-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Cleveland at Baltimore, 4:15 ET
Cleveland: 7-0 ATS off a SU loss
Baltimore: 0-7 ATS off home game

Dallas at Green Bay, 8:15 ET NBC
Dallas: 8-2 Over off home win
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS in September


Monday, September 22nd

NY Jets at San Diego, 8:30 ET ESPN
NY Jets: 3-0 ATS at San Diego
San Diego: 11-24 ATS off road division loss

[bigwinnner8]

• 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 0-2 HOME teams are 8-4 SU & 7-5
ATS (58%)

• 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 1-1 HOME teams are 13-10 SU &
15-8 ATS (65%)

• 2-0 HOME teams facing 0-2 ROAD teams are 10-1 SU & 5-5-1
ATS (50%), with an average line of –11.2.

• 2-0 HOME teams facing 1-1 ROAD teams are 18-6 SU but just
10-14 ATS (42%).

• In games matching unbeaten HOME and ROAD teams, the
HOME teams hold a 11-9 SU & 12-8 ATS (61%)


• 2-0 HOME teams facing 1-1 ROAD teams, when favored by 6
points or less, are just 4-9 ATS (27%).
Plays for ‘08: AGAINST Denver

• The HOME team holds a 3-0 SU & ATS (100%) edge in Week 3
showdowns between undefeated inter-conference opponents.
Plays for ‘08: Potentially Philadelphia

• 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 0-2 HOME teams, when playing as
an underdog, are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS (71%).
Plays for ‘08: Carolina

• 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 1-1 HOME teams, when playing as
an underdog, are 9-2 SU & 8-3
ATS (73%).
Plays for ‘08: Arizona,
Potentially Pittsburgh

• 2-0 HOME teams are 16-8 ATS
(67%) when the wagering action
coming in moves the line more in their favor.
Plays for ‘08: Potentially Buffalo, New England, NY Giants,
Denver

• 2-0 ROAD teams allowing more than 15 PPG in their first two
contests are 14-7 ATS (67%) in their Week 3 games.
Plays for ‘08: Carolina

• 2-0 ROAD teams scoring more than 25 PPG in their first two
contests are 11-6 ATS (65%) as underdogs in Week 3.
Plays for ‘08: Arizona

• 2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by less than 3
PPG are just 6-7 SU & 4-8 ATS (36%) in Week 3.
Plays for ‘08: None

• 2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by more than 20
PPG are 10-4 SU but just 6-8 ATS (33%) in Week 3.
Plays for ‘08: Potentially Philadelphia

• 2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by more than 20
PPG are 1-2 ATS when playing as double-digit favorites, and 0-4
ATS as favorites of less than 4 points.
Plays for ‘08: Potentially AGAINST Philadelphia

• 2-0 HOME teams scoring more than 33 PPG are 13-0 SU & 10-
2-1 ATS in Week 3, regardless of the opponent.
Plays for ‘08: Denver, Green Bay

[Louie]

I absolutley love Carolina this week and I am glad the board seems to like it too....

[False Light]

last week: 0-2-1

overall: 3-4-1

carolina +3

they've been everything we thought they were supposed to be over the last 2 years, plus they get their home run threat back, steve smith

ny giants -13.5

i feel like this is a trap, but cincinnati is awful. i love when they lose

arizona cardinals +3

just going with a gut feeling here, i know the trends and percentages say take washington, but i have a feeling arizona is going to pull this one out.

cleveland browns +2.5

love the brownies in this spot, must win situation, defense finally played well last week, time for the offense to come around, they did beat baltimore twice last year.

san francisco -5.5

another line that feels like a trap, but it's the freaking lions

good luck today!